Economic Outlook by State 

• New South Wales (NSW): Slow recovery due to heavy impact from COVID-19. 

• Victoria (VIC): Improvement post-lockdown, but slower recovery compared to NSW. 

• Queensland (QLD): Positive outlook driven by recovery efforts after recent floods. 

• Western Australia (WA): Resilience due to avoiding prolonged lockdowns and benefiting from high iron ore prices. 

• South Australia (SA): Expected to have the slowest long-term growth due to structural economic challenges. 

• Tasmania (TAS): Outperformed other states by maintaining low COVID-19 cases but faces demographic challenges. 

• Australian Capital Territory (ACT): Strong growth supported by high vaccination rates and government spending. 

• Northern Territory (NT): Supported by new investments and increased household spending. 

Tourism Outlook 

• International Arrivals: Expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024 in ACT, VIC, and NT. Other states are forecasted to reach these levels by 2025 or 2026. 

• Domestic Tourism: Forecasted to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022-23 and surpass them by 2023-24. 

Hotel Market Performance 

• RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room): Significant growth across key markets: 

• Brisbane: 31.5% YoY increase, reaching 83.0% of 2019 levels. 

• Canberra: 21.3% YoY increase, reaching 60.0% of 2019 levels. 

• Darwin: 157.9% YoY increase, surpassing 2019 levels at 116.5%. 

• Gold Coast: 46.7% YoY increase, reaching 84.3% of 2019 levels. 

• Hobart: 52.8% YoY increase, reaching 79.5% of 2019 levels. 

• Melbourne: -19.5% YoY decrease, reaching 38.4% of 2019 levels. 

• Newcastle: 29.3% YoY increase, reaching 78.7% of 2019 levels. 

• Perth: 30.6% YoY increase, reaching 81.8% of 2019 levels. 

• Sunshine Coast: 56.1% YoY increase, reaching 107.1% of 2019 levels. 

• Sydney: -7.6% YoY decrease, reaching 40.6% of 2019 levels. 

Supply Pipeline 

• Sydney: 3.0% CAAGR from 2021 to 2026, with significant additions in upscale and luxury segments. 

• Melbourne: 4.5% CAAGR, focusing on upscale and upper upscale segments. 

• Brisbane: 2.2% CAAGR, with notable growth in luxury segments. 

• Perth: 1.8% CAAGR, with ongoing developments in upper upscale and luxury segments. 

• Adelaide: 3.8% CAAGR, with significant developments in upscale and luxury segments. 

• Canberra: 2.1% CAAGR, focusing on upscale segments. 

• Hobart: 2.8% CAAGR, with developments in upscale segments. 

• Gold Coast: 1.7% CAAGR, focusing on luxury and upscale segments. 

• Sunshine Coast: 1.6% CAAGR, with a mix of midscale and upscale developments. 

• Newcastle: 2.9% CAAGR, focusing on luxury and upscale segments. 

Key Trends and Insights 

• Domestic Tourism Surge: Increased domestic travel has boosted hotel performance, particularly in leisure-focused regions like the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. 

• Investment Trends: Focus on high-margin accommodation types such as luxury hotels and serviced apartments. 

The overall outlook for Australia’s hotel market in 2022 and beyond is positive, with gradual recovery expected across all regions. Key challenges include managing supply additions and adapting to the evolving travel landscape amidst ongoing pandemic uncertainties. 

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