Hotel Occupancy Forecast: 29% Occupancy Decline, $75B Revenue Loss in Next Year
Date: August 25, 2020
The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a 29% decline in annual hotel occupancy in the next 12 months, resulting in a projected revenue loss for the industry of about $75 billion in room revenue alone.
The estimate is according to the Magid HTL Forecast Tracker, analyzed in conjunction with Horwath HTL.
The forecast shows declines being driven by business and leisure travel intentions alike, but consumer sentiment for attending a meeting or conference in the next 12 months was the most telling, showing a projected decline of 22%. Additionally, while travel incidence is being impacted, the research shows that frequency intention remains stable from pre-COVID levels. This suggests that while a smaller percentage plan to travel in the future, those that do plan to travel are likely to do so at a frequency that resembles their pre-COVID behavior.
Consumer sentiment has always been viewed as a leading predictor of downstream behavior,” John Fareed, chairman, Horwath HTL, America, told Hotel Business. “The first wave of the Magid study was conducted at the beginning of April, several weeks after the virus began to cause lockdowns. The second wave was recently concluded at the beginning of August.
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