Strategy & Planning
Key Hotel Market Projections
Horwath HTL provides one of Australasia's leading hotel operators, with annual market projections across New Zealand's five key hotel destinations: Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Rotorua, and Queenstown.
Project Scope
Commissioned on a recurring annual basis, Horwath HTL delivers occupancy and ADR projections driven by a bespoke econometrics model developed specifically for the New Zealand hotel market. The model draws on the correlations between historical hotel performance and movement across a comprehensive set of 15 tourism and economic indicators, enabling a rigorous, data-driven view of each market’s trajectory.
Key activities include:
- Modelling hotel room supply pipelines and projected new supply entry for each of the five key markets.
- Incorporating tourism data, market insights and visitor expenditure data and tourism flow patterns, including international arrival volumes and domestic overnight travel trends.
- Integrating relevant macroeconomic indicators with tourism data and market insights to assess demand sensitivity to broader economic conditions.
- Assessing historical correlations between the various metrics to projects quarterly market performance.
- Delivering concise market projections with key assumptions for the next three years.
Outcomes & Benefits to the Client
The annual projections equip the operator ‘s hotel teams with timely, independent forecasts that directly inform annual budget setting and revenue strategy across their New Zealand portfolio. Rather than relying on generic national forecasts, the operator and hotel owners benefit from independent projections built on Horwath HTL’s local market knowledge, accounting for micro-market dynamics, probability-weighted supply scenarios, and destination-specific demand drivers that national statistical sources do not capture.
Contact for Project
Project Location
New Zealand
