What we mean by impact

At Horwath HTL, our market impact analysis goes far deeper than basic supply and demand modeling. It is a structured framework that examines:

• Competitive supply alignment
• Market segmentation and growth capacity
• Future demand penetration
• Risk of occupancy and ADR dilution
• Sensitivity to brand placement and saturation

While conventional market studies address general supportability, our impact framework considers what happens when a specific hotel enters a specific competitive set – particularly when brand overlap is present. In these “one-on-one” impact studies, we quantify the influence that a proposed hotel may have on an existing one, isolating room revenue displacement risks under a variety of branding and market assumptions.

This layered methodology often involves three interlocking market scenarios:

1. A baseline performance forecast for the existing market (without the proposed hotel).
2. A scenario where the new entrant is added but is not a direct brand competitor.
3. A scenario where the new entrant is a similar brand, representing direct competition.

This process helps clarify not only if there will be an impact – but also how much, to whom, and under what circumstances.

From market impact to asset strategy

This level of specificity enhances valuation accuracy. By integrating impact analysis into our valuation work, we stress-test assumptions that are often treated as static.

• If performance displacement is likely, we model its effects on revenue and net operating income – and ultimately, on value.
• If the proposed hotel is expected to grow the market rather than split it, we provide scenario-based support for strategic positioning and risk mitigation.

This dual perspective is essential for developers, investors, municipalities, and operators alike. It offers a complete view of the market ecosystem and a realistic forecast of how a hotel will perform in it.

When market impact becomes essential

While all feasibility should consider impact, the need becomes even more critical in:

• Franchise-heavy markets, where saturation risk is high and brand cannibalization is possible.
• Secondary and tertiary markets, where even a single hotel can shift rate integrity or oversupply conditions.
• Public-private partnership developments, where incentive eligibility often depends on demonstrating minimal harm to existing tax revenue or job markets.
• Redevelopment and conversion projects, where existing land uses, zoning overlays, or anchor properties introduce layered externalities.

Our belief is that a well-done market study should inherently include a market impact analysis – not as an add-on, but as a foundational component of any credible feasibility conclusion.

Redefining feasibility as a strategic tool

Feasibility is often treated as a static checklist: market metrics, comp sets, financial projections. But the reality is far more dynamic. Feasibility should act as a strategic diagnostic, illuminating where and how risks manifest – not just financially, but competitively and reputationally.

At Horwath HTL, we’ve redefined the process. Our combined expertise in micro-level impact analysis and macro-level valuation modeling enables us to deliver insights that are defensible, actionable, and directly relevant to client decisions.

More than market data – decision intelligence

In a cycle defined by close scrutiny, rising costs, and stakeholder pressure, feasibility isn’t just a requirement—it’s a strategic imperative. And that means doing it right.

Our approach delivers:

• High-definition visibility into market dynamics
• Quantification of risk exposure and revenue displacement
• Forward-looking value implications
• A more credible and complete narrative for stakeholders

Feasibility done right isn’t just about what’s possible. It’s about what’s smart.

At Horwath HTL, – that’s the standard we bring to every engagement.